2024/25 team preview: SK Slavia Praha
Eden’s very own T’n’T. This upcoming season is officially all about them. Jindřich Trpišovský picks the players, Jaroslav Tvrdík defends the choices. If you’d like, you may add a third T in the form of Pavel Tykač, landing just behind Sparta’s Daniel Křetínský on the Forbes list of the richest Czechs, who provides the funds at will. Without the title in three consecutive seasons — and without a trophy in two of those — Slavia are seemingly doing what some countries do in crisis: concentrating decision-making power in the hands of as few people as possible. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, since one pair of those hands still belongs to the undisputed best Czech coach of the last decade, but the win-now plan now must get executed to the T *wink wink* otherwise some heads ought to finally roll.
Step by step, Slavia have come to resemble Toronto Maple Leafs of the past few years. An NHL franchise under the immense pressure of the biggest market in the league and one notoriously demanding fanbase, the Leafs usually navigate the stress-free parts of the calendar with ease only to bump into the wall soon after the crunch time arrives. Yet they insist they are on the right path. They run the same core of players back every year, only refreshing the supporting cast each summer; gradually turning away from skilled players, instead looking for size, grit and physical superiority.
Ever since 2020 and their first notable embarrassment in the post-season, the Leafs hierarchy has frustrated their own fandom with the same kind of claims. The details decided, they said. Lessons have been learnt across the board, they promised. Eventually, the general manager delivering many of those monotone messages departed in 2023. This summer, the head coach at fault for mismanaging all those five rosters followed him out of the door.
At Slavia, the voices stay all the same — only getting louder by the day.
Of course there are stark differences. Toronto, for one, haven’t won the Stanley Cup since 1967. At the same time, their missteps are occurring in the era promoting parity where title defences are hard to come by and seven different franchises have celebrated the Cup in the last 8 years. Slavia are built to dominate, the league is open to be dominated (by a few), and so three years spent outside the throne easily feel much longer in reality.
This summer, Slavia are afforded to double down on their approach; for the first time in forever, it looks like no key player is leaving, while three statement signings north of 1,99 million EUR will have arrived since January to boost the core itself — not the supporting cast as per usual.
In theory, Slavia should be better than ever and outright unbeatable after accumulating a point total that would suffice in all five previous seasons featuring the post-season and boasting the fifth best winning percentage (74,3%) in the club’s rich post-war history. Now… will the reality concur?
Looking back on 2023/24
What went (particularly) right
Slavia fans always complain about the team’s (in)ability to open up a low block; about the decreasing creativity, flair and the so-called X factor on offer. That cannot be wholly contested, but it’s important not to lose perspective. There were only 2 games all season long in which Slavia didn’t reach the double digits of deep completed passes or crosses. On average, they achieved 20,31 deep completions per game; Sparta were only working with 14,2 of them. Similarly, there were only 3 instances in which Slavia didn’t enter the opponent’s penalty area from open play at least 10 times. In terms of success rate, they managed to figure out the defences on 51,3% of their attempts to gain the danger zone (1st), whereas Sparta succeeded with 48,1% (4th). In Petr Ševčík and Lukáš Provod, Slavia had two of the most purposeful, cutting-edge passers around. Clearly, they did have the keys.
On the other hand, Slavia fans barely ever speak about their defence which quietly keeps on delivering the goods, once again the best in the league in terms of average non-penalty expected goals against allowed per game (0,77). That’s the exact same rate they maintained throughout their historic 2020/21 unbeaten season. If you’re not ready to trust the xG as yet, take the average of 7,71 shots against — once again only a tad higher than in 20/21 (7,26). Sparta allowed over 10 now, and so did Plzeň. Moreover, Sparta goalkeepers on average faced an extra shot per game (3,37 vs 2,27). However marginal it might seem to you at first sight, the league average for the number of saves per game stands at 4,35. It absolutely is significant.
What went (especially) wrong
The difference was always what was done with the relative truckload of opportunities upfront (like also the 2,6 finished off corner kicks per game turning into this fact), and with the relative little created at the other end.
Upfront, Slavia especially torpedoed their season in the first 10 rounds. While the focus will always be on matches later in the season, the start was when the Eden side oozed the most swagger. Inside the first 8 rounds, their worst xG matchup still had them beating the opponent by 1,19 expected goals and ranked 94th at the season’s end (out of 554 xG performances). Then the damned derby arrived, Trpišovský shit his pants, and the subsequent epic fail with Teplice (goalless from one shot on target worth 0,08 goals) forever etched serious cracks in Slavia’s collective confidence. At that point, Slavia had already dropped six points — and twice against teams from outside Top 6, which would only happen twice in the remaining 25.
The first derby had set a trend for the other remaining regular-season Top 3 battles. Slavia created a further 1,16 expected goals spread across those three games, utterly deservedly earning just the one more point vs Sparta. Ultimately, they failed to beat both rivals inside the 30 rounds for the first time in a decade. They also had an insanely poor luck to blame (losing in-form Ševčík and Wallem before the first spring derby, and then in-form Provod ahead of the second one), but the gameplan was the main reason.
The ultimate low point arrived at the tail end of the regular season when Slavia once again threw away the all-important pole position. This time it wasn’t only the offence that constituted a problem, with the defence shipping two goals from two shot attempts against Sigma in R29. On that miserable day, only a late Mojmír Chytil strike meant that Jindřich Trpišovský is still dodging his first back-to-back league defeats at Slavia.
When the title hunt gets so tight, the bottom line presented in the “What went (particularly) right” section doesn’t tend to matter as long as there’s so many fuck-ups sprinkled all across to lament. Like this little sad titbit.
Most valuable player (still on board)
per my MVP model (traditional stats): Lukáš Provod (8th in F:LIGA)
per my positional models (advanced stats): Mojmír Chytil (100 pct at CF)
per Statsbomb’s On-Ball Value (OBV) metric: Petr Ševčík
As he was gearing towards becoming everyone’s top Czech performer at 2024 Euro, nobody seemingly noticed. Nonetheless, Lukáš Provod had enjoyed a very strong spring for Slavia, and so his subsequent star performances showcasing the work rate and drive we’ve always liked about him were nothing to be surprised about — even if so many people on X wouldn’t have had him in their starting XI for the Portugal opener.
Quietly, Provod put up his second 10-point season — the first since his previous pre-Euro campaign (2020/21) where a serious injury robbed him of his first tournament showing everyone was, for a change, excited for. Provod also chipped in to 6 other goals via indirect contribution, and was the primary creator of 31 goalscoring chances, only lagging behind Ševčík (37). All his three tallies were important — go-ahead goals in 3 wins. (Chytil, another candidate I considered, had only two extra important goals.) Deník Sport writers picked him as the man of the match on 4 occasions (unrivalled on Slavia) and F:LIGA shortlisted him for 12 teams of the week (joint first with Václav Jurečka). He was valuable in his own half, as well.
That strong spring run obviously had a lot to do with Provod finally settling into his best roles — be it the most advanced midfielder of three, or the left winger where he’d made Slavia notice first as a Dynamo Č. Budějovice star — whereas the autumn Provod was almost exclusively a left (wing) back. That is, decidedly, a waste — even if he was still one of the best FBs around.
Further up the pitch, Provod is an immensely valuable unicorn without a glaring hole in his game. His worst individual percentile values have something to do with means of chance/goal creation (dribbles, pressures, lay-offs and give-and-go’s), yet he’s hardly below average in those areas. As for dribbles, he navigates the tight spaces as expertly as they come, only progressing the play with the ball at his feet at a worse rate than Kušej, Alli and Ewerton — three ball-carrying specialists. It just didn’t necessarily led to threat generated, though he still sits 3rd on team (6 chances/goals). Similarly with pressures, he recovered 3rd most balls in the final third on Slavia and gobbled up 1,54 loose balls per game (mostly lower down), it just so happened that his efficient chasing created a sole interesting opening. And that he only partnered up with someone else for 6 chances/goals through one-two’s and the sort? Who cares, honestly, if he gains you the penalty area at the 2nd highest rate in the league — ahead of Birmančević.
And that’s it.
Those are the only weak(ish) spots you could talk about. All to do with chance creation, all not dropping below the 40-percentile bar. It honestly felt ridiculous to even start picking those apart. Provod is a stud who helps you in so many different ways it’s kinda overwhelming to think about them.
That being said, would you mind if I posted this pizza chart here instead, and really just let it speak for itself? I’m sure fellow longtime Chytil stans wouldn’t mind one bit — the empty calorie goals (only 5 of his 16 actually mattered with regards to game state) are the least great thing about him…
Chip on the shoulder
who’s got something to particularly prove — either to himself, fans or the coach
Daniel Fila readily admits he wasn’t ready in 2022. Coaches concur, saying he’s now arrived more mentally mature with a more well-rounded game to lean on. Now he’s poised to open the season as a starter thanks, in part, to the Euros — with one of those internationals looking to unseat him carrying a €3-mil pricetag on top of a sizeable chip he’s born pretty much the entire career. Good luck, but also good on Fila. He’s deserved this chance, growing into a multi-layered contributor. But now Slavia coaching staff must make sure it really is a chance — not just another three-game starter sample like in 21/22. I, for one, worry it will once again come down to a very brief sniff, so it’s — in turn — on Fila to make sure he sells his potential the best he can.
The comparison table above seemingly paints a clear picture: Chorý is a vast upgrade on Fila. But that comes with a massive caveat. Chorý got to play with Kopic, Cadu, Souaré, Šulc, Kalvach, Bucha, Vydra… I could go on. He was functioning as part of a team that performed roughly 25 touches in the attacking box per game. Fila got to play with Trubač, Gning (barely), Yasser and a bunch of avid crossers, leading to Teplice performing roughly 15 touches in the attacking box per game; only a tad more than Zlín. Chorý’s service usually consisted of two expansive wingbacks, two players just below and a premier deep-lying playmaker. Fila was doing much on his own as part of an isolated CF pair in a 3-5-2, at best looking like a 3-4-1-2.
This context matters and it makes any comparison tricky. For what it’s worth, I would suggest that grading out as average in all three areas on 2023/24 Teplice is a stunning business card. Fila is very poor in the air, winning just 16/69 aerial duels around/in the attacking box, and can appear too selfish at times, but once again — isn’t the latter more of a by-product of the environment than anything else? I frankly cannot wait to find out.
One more thing I cannot wait to find out: where does David Zima slot in on the depth chart to start the season. He too got a longer vacation due to his zero-minute Euro experience, and I’m quite certain he’d rather work hard in the preparation camp instead, seeing the potentially increased competition by Chaloupek and remembering… that Olomouc game.
The thing is, he was actually very good in that game, which was kind of a trend ever since Slavia surprisingly broke the bank for him. He looked sloppy on that Kulenović triple chance and perhaps two other occasions, but otherwise he was hardly a let down. In his ten 90-minute starts, Slavia allowed only an average of 0,53 xGA, far below the average for the rest. Zima just became the epitome of what I was describing in the “What went (especially) wrong” section: scattered moments overshadowing the big picture. It’s up to Slavia fans, and Trpišovský, to decide what to hold dearer.
One aspect of Zima’s game which had never really been there to such an extent — and which flew far under the radar due to his defensive mishaps — was his attacking contribution. He was once again reliable in ground and loose ball duels, but he’s also looked more cocksure on the ball in his second Slavia stint, going from 70,9 meters gained per game via runs with the ball to the current 76,2 meters, chipping in to 8 chances and 2 goals.
Inside the club’s off-season
with much thanks to @quelhar, @martin_kabelka, @zivadira and Thorklaer for guiding me through the motions of Slavia’s pre-season
Squad turnover
Usually in this space, I note one or two big stars that had left Slavia scrambling for replacements, trying to predict who else might leave on loan. This year, I’m not sure there’s all that much to talk about. It could change once the Euros-related dust settles, but even if Ivan Schranz left for his first true European adventure, Slavia would only be losing 14th most used player and a six-point forward. Sure, his actual value stretches beyond that, but he’s nowhere close to 22/23’s David Jurásek (1st on Slavia, 37th in the league), 21/22’s Alexander Bah (1st on Slavia, 65th in the league), 19/20’s Vladimír Coufal (1st on Slavia, 10th in the league) or 18/19’s Michael Ngaedu (4th on Slavia, 65th in the league). The only recent time Slavia were also retaining all 11 most used players at this July point was them going into 2021/22, and that was when Provod (5th on team) was already injured — so de facto lost — and Sima (12th on team) aggressively shopped around.
Could Jurečka be a game-changer in this regard? His shocking pre-season suggests he had already moved on, but no real rumours are out there. He was the 4th most used player, controversially, and would take 27 goal contributions with him — though 6 of his goals were penalties. Fans are already tired of him, so he doesn’t fall in the above mentioned group either.
As for players potentially departing on loan, Alexandr Bužek wouldn’t hurt in this sense, and neither would Andres Dumitrescu with his 98 minutes worth of 1 million EUR. Aiham Ousou takes away a further 90 minutes.
There’s no point in going on: unless a few things happen at once, Slavia are staying the most rigid club out there, right now (already without 15th most used Mick van Buren) retaining 1,8% more 23/24 mins than Sparta.
Biggest upgrade
I’ve already rambled about Antonín Kinský’s underrated value enough, mostly as part of this year’s Pardubice preview, but I have saved his pizza chart for this space because I truly believe he could be an upgrade. Not just on Aleš Mandous who’d otherwise step in for Jindřich Staněk, but also potentially on Staněk himself. He’s that good. Kinský is one formidable shot stopper, preventing 5,98 goals across his 18,86 full starts, yet so is Staněk. As opposed to him, though, Kinský is also a supremely reliable distributor to the byline, successfully stretching the opponent in the initial build-up phase 31 times while sending the ball out of bounds 7 other times — Mandous’ crown discipline (12 x 1) and Staněk’s frequent downfall (19 x 13!) — and also a confident, reliable helper while coming off the line to claim/punch/intercept/clear (helping 13 times, tripping up 2 other times) — Staněk’s dubious calling card (11 x 10) and Mandous’ nightmares (6 x 2).
I’m willing to put all my eggs in the “Kinský is totally ready for this” basket, but even if he isn’t, I would like to issue a little pushback on Mandous as the fall back plan. He was legitimately horrible in 2022/23, but this past season was his lowkey bounce back and should he become available once Staněk presumably recovers ahead of the spring, the league’s rest must be all over him. He quietly made 7 high-danger saves for the 3rd best save percentage in high-danger situations and generally avoided soft goals. He appeared shaky on some occasions, but made for a reliable distributor on balance.
Second upgrade I can see — if his recurring muscle troubles allow — concern the incoming Igoh Ogbu backup. The Nigerian, who’s made some high-profile mistakes across an outstanding body of work, was effectively unrivalled as the go-to middle CB choice, but now Štěpán Chaloupek is coming over as arguably the next best thing on a non-Top 3 roster, actually delivering some interesting passes into half spaces and through balls, while frequently acting as a set piece target — massive upgrade on Ogbu in itself.
Biggest downgrade
Any departure thus far gets covered up by arrivals, since the most value departed by far concentrates in the CF department with Fila and Chorý newly on board to more than compensate. Furthermore, Muhamed Tijani stands out as a premier addition-by-subtraction candidate. Involved in the second lowest portion of goals scored with him around (5/26), he never caught up to Slavia’s tempo and was the second worst finisher, racking up chances worth of 6,35 expected goals with his shots actually threatening the GK (put on target) amounting to a shocking 2,37 expected goals scored.
Those two metrics highlighted above (I’m not even talking about action in box success rate or the ten high-danger shots put off target altogether) place him firmly in the basement with Milan Ristovski, which… says it all.
That being said, Mick van Buren could actually be missed. I know it might sound surprising, as he too didn’t pick up a lot of points, but he was far more unlucky than Tijani (warranting about an extra 4 goals) and faaaaaaaaaar more valuable anywhere inbetween spare for running around. While the sample is alarmingly small, Van Buren was still probably the best pure creator among CFs, topping xA and deep completions charts.
New kid on the block
With Slavia, there’s never a shortage of kids. The real question is always whether their inspired summer/winter preparation turns into something substantial. We had been there with Dominik Pech (b. 2006), involved once again, while his 2006-born peer Mikuláš Konečný also keeps re-appearing. The next in line would probably be Karel Belžík (b. 2007), starting the 2nd-tier opener for Slavia reserves, or Šimon Slončík (b. 2007), Tom’s brother. Jan Trédl, an unbelievably prolific right back (13 goals) helping Slavia “B” to earn the promotion from ČFL, got only briefly promoted — now back, at 20.
The same kind of a question actually persists with Lukáš Vorlický (b. 2002), too, even though there’s no question about his maturity (his interviews always sounding very level-headed and aware of his own shortcomings), development (he was a Primavera star at Atalanta before the many injuries hit), pure talent (he was widely considered the best 2002-born player not named Hložek, hailing from the same area and coming up through Brno) or whether Trpišovský rates him (Vorlický reminds him of Stanciu, the highest praise). Whether his knee holds after three surgeries (at 22!), or whether his physical/fitness condition matches Slavia’s demands (he’s looked alright in terms of intensity, but that was pre-season only), are the more pertinent sources of worry for Slavia fans who have been salivating over his poise in dribbling, appetite to do the unexpected and daring.
Looking ahead to 2024/25
Below is the team’s current(ish) depth chart with a maximum of 4 alternatives for one position. The depth chart is up to date as of 10 July and obviously subject to change since the transfer window is far from closed at the moment. Players highlighted in red are longterm absentees rather far from making a comeback and/or from making their last appearance, while players in italics are all-but-confirmed arrivals awaiting visa or other papework. Those likely to depart will be highlighted in the text below, as will some other depth options or changes occurring since the deadline. To add a little flavour, I’ve intuitively rated various positions/areas of the pitch — goal, right flank, left flank, central defence, central midfield, forward positions (incl. attacking midfielders) — on a simple scale consisting of 5 tiers, which is what the different shading (blue to red) represents.
Need left to be addressed
I would like to say David Douděra keeps proving me wrong with his amazing pizza charts in consecutive years (92,3 percentile in 22/23), but there are two factors holding me back: 1) I’ve always said he’s of high(est) standard for a Czech top flight fullback, which is not the same as saying he’s anywhere close to the best Slavia could do as a failing title contender; 2) It’s easier to look this good at stuff when you do a lot of stuff generally.
Take ball progression. He looks elite, right, both via passing and running. One of his tricks I do appreciate is a first-time knock down the line, after all. Yet, my model doesn’t account for losses, and if it did, Douděra would fall far lower. Unbelievably far, in fact. He gained 23,82 meters for every one of his ball loss, putting him right on par with Cheick Souaré. So far so good, until you realize Jan Juroška is setting the benchmark at 44,16 meters, while the likes of Sladký (25,12), Cedidla (25,43), Wiesner (26,21), Čelůstka (27,69), Reinberk (28,03), Trummer (28,44) have all done better. Fullbacks on strong teams are actively encouraged to take risks, which is why Ryneš (25,4) also doesn’t look too well, but Douděra is overdoing it.
Or take crossing. His main mean of cracking the penalty area — and at the highest rate in the league which is a big change compared to 22/23 (84,6 pct) — but also a frequent source of frustration. No wonder since he’s gone from crossing 4,45 times per 22/23 game to crossing 6,66 times now. This uptick in quantity has decidedly not come with an uptick in quality, with Douděra now seeing his crosses blocked early, before entering the penalty area, at a more concerning rate (18% compared to 14,3% last term). He delivered exactly as much expected assists per attempted cross (0,026) as David Jurásek in 22/23 — a similarly volume and frustrating crosser. Souaré, another avid crosser (4th most frequent though not as avid, of course, attempting 5,63) who didn’t take set pieces (though you may remember Douděra did take some corner kicks out of desperation), delivered 0,034 xA.
Anyway, two of my four consultants also mentioned right wingback role as worth upgrading, so there’s hardly any grudge to speak of, while Michal Tomič and Lukáš Masopust, quietly rumoured to go, are not ideal solutions. Slavia too realize this, to an extent, but prior rumours bubbling beneath the surface about Jusuf Gazibegović of Sturm Graz have not materialized.
It’s not just the right-hand side, though, with some Slavia fans also expressing concerns about the opposite wingback starting role, looking like Ondřej Zmrzlý’s one to lose after some decent progress across the spring. His pace and dynamism indeed leaves a lot to be desired, but right now, he’s worth working with. The last thing this management can afford to do is to quickly ditch yet another freshly signed LWB solution, after recognizing the Dumitrescu mistake within minutes and temporarily demoting El Hadji Malick Diouf to the reserves after an early love affair turned a little sour.
Finally, let me quickly deal with the supposed need about to be addressed through the return of Peter Olayinka, himself vastly overrated in 2022/23. Graciously ignoring the fact that Slavia had just sold a Top 3 left winger in two of the last three campaigns for a marginal profit of €200k, there is already a better internal candidate for the LW starting role anyway.
I realize Conrad Wallem doesn’t backtrack dilligently enough (he was a miscast at LWB) and had been mostly awful in the spring while dealing with some personal issues, but he’s still an absolute cheat code in gaining the zone — something Slavia are not doing often enough per common complaints. From open play only, he cracked the box 3,32 times per 90. The next non-Slavia winger (Petržela) already lags 0,4 entries behind. Olayinka statline in the previous 3 years: 1,36 — 1,94 — 1,64. It was never his strength. I understand Slavia want to just cram the box with Olayinka, Chorý and perhaps even Lingr, but you first need players to get you there in control.
Some random notes on the depth chart:
- Speaking of Tomáš Chorý as the presumed ultimate solution of Slavia’s presumed box problem. They had one of the best ‘foxes in the box’ of 2022/23 in Tijani and look where it got them. Besides, Chorý is a much more effective contributor in the build-up and in stretching defences than he is in the box itself. He’s tall and nasty, yeah, but that doesn’t make him a smart mover in crowded places like the penalty area. Also, Chorý hasn’t topped out at 11 non-penalty goals just this season by accident — his total wasn’t actually set back by the luck factor at all, as opposed to some others (like his successor at Plzeň). He’s largely got himself to blame, missing the target too often in 0,15+ xG situations begging for more. It was a similar story in 22/23 when he actually was snakebitten, but also far more underwhelming as a finisher himself.
- After moving to the side in the second half of the season, Jan Bořil was back in a LCB role this pre-season and it’s fair to wonder how big a role he’ll play as he desperately wants to retire as a champion. He wasn’t nearly enough of a defensive contributor, but has considerable potential to be an even bigger needle-mover on the ball than Zima could be.
- Gone is Jakub Hromada and up step two younger and unconventional candidates for the role of Oscar’s backup. One is a career centre back who struggled terribly in his own box (notably as opposed to the infamous CDM experiment that precedes him, Maksym Talovierov), and so he likely gets pushed up full-time to sell his decent, prompt pass.
- The other one is a regular on a relegated team I thought was making too big a leap, only for him to earn praise from fans and Trpišovský alike. Bužek had already been earmarked by Karviná but basically made Slavia changed their mind with his pre-season performances, so we’ll see.
- Jurečka’s agent wants you to desperately know his client is underrated (no really, he’s desperate, posting this just 5 days prior) and maybe he actually is. But without penalties, my model doesn’t exactly fancy his behaviour in the box (other than xG and deep completions), while Trpišovský likely overrates his contributions off the ball, with Jurečka performing little amount of defensive actions (compared to Chytil or Tijani) and getting caught fouling or straying offside too often, as well.
- Finally in this space, let me pick up on my 2023 remark that Christos Zafeiris is effectively Petr Ševčík’s younger doppelganger. He looks a bit/lot more ordinary in the things Ševčík consistently does at the top level, like gaining the danger zone (bit) or progressing play (lot), but he may yet turn into a more complete package. It’s a shame he suffered yet another poorly timed injury in pre-season, as he just needs space now.
Roster battle to follow
In a way, there’s one particularly high-profile battle on the horizon for 2025 spring when a recovered Jindřich Staněk is expected to be available again… expecting to play. It’s not his first shoulder issue by any means, so hopefully the surgery fixes the longstanding problem, but it’s going to be fascinating to find out when he returns — and how. Remember that his start to 2023/24 was insane, facing four bloody penalties inside the first five rounds (saving one) and allowing just three unpreventable non-penalty goals. He was under fire, holding on to look capable but not special the rest of the way.
Two of the more immediate hence intriguing battles for playing time have one thing in common: they influence how Slavia perform down the right-hand side, the only one of five areas of the pitch I rate as above average only. This is not only because Douděra, but also because we are still not sure about Matěj Jurásek, Slavia’s very own Adam Karabec in that he looks fantastic in patches in real time — and in small samples fed into my model.
There were, remarkably, only 3 back-to-back starts reserved for Jurásek in 2023/24, two clear results of him scoring in the first game of the two. Once, mid-March, he got dropped even as he participated on 3:0 and 4:0 victories as a starter. His usage has been peculiar, in part given his struggles to stay fit, and this campaign once again has the making of a a big year for the soon-to-be-21-year-old. Wingers slowly enter their peaks about now.
The comparison table above is fascinating in that they look like very similar players without actually being similar. Both attack the box willingly, but one does so while involving teammates a lot (Schranz), whereas the other looks to create openings by himself and for himself (Jurásek). Both enter the box rather often for wingers, but Schranz succeeds with an elite 52,9% of his actions there (27/51), while Jurásek with a poor 27,3% (15/55). Funnily enough, for a noted fighter, Schranz actually almost never gets fouled up high (once) and only created one chance by engaging in a duel. Jurásek is more of a stud in this respect, earning a dangerous set piece more than once per full game (in total getting fouled in final third 15x).
Onto the other right-sided battle: should Slavia stick with the 3-4-3 formation for once, the RCB role could be up for grabs between a seasoned veteran (it often gets forgotten that Tomáš Holeš turns 32 this term) and an up-and-comer who could no longer be considered inexperienced.
They both have great limitations at the back per my model, though that’s more a result of the lack of opportunity in some cases (blocks, clearances etc.). Not so much in terms of aerial and ground duel success rate, however, where they are both overwhelmingly awful. At the same time, Vlček is more dynamic without winning nearly as much loose ball duels as Holeš. Vlček is also more obviously talented on the ball, yet Holeš stands tall as the more consequential passer (while Vlček often gains the zone with his surging runs and — in that brief spell as a RB behind Douděra — overlaps).
Season forecast
The projection is based on team quality assessed by Elo rating system. The system optimally weighs past results, taking strength of schedule and home field advantage into consideration. Just like last year, the model is additionally fed by my personal assessment of off season changes, for better or worse, to account for what the model can’t capture. MOL Cup is also simulated. The probability of qualifying for UEFA competitions takes both the league and the cup into account. For a more technical explanation of how the model works, kindly head here.
This one can’t go sideways.
Slavia may have finished a disappointing second for a third time in a row, but in the eyes of the model — strongly preferring facts over emotions, I’m told — they’ve done nothing wrong. In fact, seeing their marvelous summer — again, purely in terms of value going in and out right now, not in terms of future planning or financial sustainability — they are good for 6 extra points.
In the objective eyes of the model, Slavia are — of course — 2023/24’s great overachievers. Two years ago, they were projected to earn 71,5 points inside the regular season, underhitting considerably with 66. The model adjusted, pegging them for 66,4 points last summer — and they overhit it considerably by earning 72. Now the model adjusts again… to 72,2.
You can see the pattern, and perhaps no lessons learnt, with the 69% chance of crawling over 70 points inside 30 rounds looking a lil steep.
Bold prediction
The track record: 0/3. Slavia didn’t score more with Jurečka off the pitch
The prediction: A Slavia player is given the Foreigner of the Year award
The rationale: Fishing for my first accurate Slavia prediction, I’m softening a little bit. In 2022, you may remember, I predicted that Douděra will bag his Slavia first only after Bořil returns to the fold — a wild mishit. Now I’m kind of playing it safe… only that not really. With Lukáš Haraslín (probably overdue as no Slovak has won the award since 2015/16’s Michal Ďuriš!) and Veljko Birmančević (this year’s winner) still trotting around, this is no homerun, especially since the last five winners were also champions, including the only back-to-back recipient, the mythical Nicolae Stanciu.
I feel like Slavia boast a fine collection of candidates, but maybe not the right ones for this category. If Wallem doesn’t aspire, then he’s likely getting outworked by another foreigner in Olayinka — good. They’ll pick up points.
At the same time, Oscar Dorley — Slavia’s undisputed MVP of the most recent two-year period — probably never will, and that doesn’t bode well. In the 11-year history of this award, only Asger Sørensen (22/23) and Costa Nhamoinesu (13/14) have garnered the love as defensive specialists. Other than that, the benchmark has been 14 points, typically coming with the “most points notched by a foreigner” tag attached to the output. That went even for the low-profile winners like Ikaunieks or Mešanović (2016-18).
One exception to the rule? Stanciu of 2019/20 who was prolific (15 points) and led the league in assists (11), but all the same landed 3rd behind Kanga and Musa on the list of foreign point-getters. Could Zafeiris follow in his footsteps? Not with the 29,3-percentile expected assists and 41,5-percentile high-danger shots… not with such a profile. This prediction is bold, alright!
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